Swat after the peace deal

By: Khadim Hussain

AFTER the government of NWFP signed a peace deal with the hardliner militants of Maulana Fazlullah in Swat on May 21, the enlightened population of Swat believed that the situation in the scenic valley would normalise within a short span of time.

Under the deal, the government and the hardliner Fazlullah's militia had agreed that Sharia law would be imposed, the Pakistan army would gradually withdraw, the government and the Taliban would exchange prisoners, the Taliban would recognise the writ of the government, halt attacks on barber shops and music shops. The Taliban will not operate training camps, a ban would be placed on raising private militias, the Taliban would turn in heavy weapons, denounce suicide attacks and would cooperate in vaccination drives. Mamderhai Markaz of Fazlullah would be turned into an Islamic University and the Taliban would allow women to perform their duties in their workplace without fear.

Irrespective of how the deal was portrayed in the western, Indian and Afghan media, not to speak of the American corporate media, unstructured interviews with a cross-section of the population from different parts of Swat depict two apparently contradictory scenarios. It seems a majority of the population in Swat has already formed its own opinion about the deal almost a month after it was signed by the NWFP government apparently with the consent of the federal government.

The first scenario: the urban centres are open, suicide bombing has stopped, mobility of people in the towns has increased but very little business activity is taking place. "Hotels have recorded a huge loss since May 2007 in the length and breadth of Swat.

The second scenario: the Taliban have strong control over the upper parts of Swat and some parts of Kabal. They continue to hold trials for trivial disputes in a village of Matta called Budegram while the complicated disputes among the people are transferred to Peochar, the present headquarters of the hardliner militia of Maulana Fazlullah.

The Taliban continue running training camps in the maze of interlinked hills of Shaur-Peochar-Deolai and then to Khal, Dir — a district neighbouring Swat, where they have recently been reported to have burnt a few schools for girls. These days one hears more of Syed Agha / Khan Agha, a Taliban commander and trainer of Afghan origin, and Bakht Farzand Khan, the reported governor of Matta of the Taliban militia, more than Muslim Khan and Ali Bakht who represented the Fazlullah militia in talks with the provincial government.

The Taliban in the meanwhile have been instrumental in stopping the deforestation in the hills of Sakhra and have exhorted the local population of Bamakhela, a village in Matta, to construct a proper drainage system. They had even initiated the distribution of the hills of Sambat, previously claimed by the local Khans, among the landless population of the village, but just fell short of implementing their system of redistribution. The Taliban seem to have replaced the local Khans in dispensing speedy justice to the landless population of the area.

In upper Swat, the local elite have yet to claim their captured orchards. The locals claim that the Taliban stay in those orchards in the day time and climb the hills in the night. There is strong indication that even the male civilian functionaries of the government are yet to resume their regular duties. Matta, Sambat, Namal, Nokhara, Shaur, Peochar in upper Swat and some parts of Nikpekhel are actually being governed by the Taliban.

All the principles of social interaction and individual behaviour in these areas are expected to be observed according to the Salafi code of Islam. Some locals are of the opinion that the Taliban are also involved in cutting trees and bringing them down to the lower parts of Swat in connivance with the local forestry department. In the rest of the valley, most of the people seem to be confused about who the real governors are in their region.

The provincial government had assumed that it would be able to break up alliances and networks within the Taliban Salafi jihadist organisations. Evidence on the other hand shows that the Taliban networks are capable of breaking up alliances in the government. The recent controversy between the provincial and central governments amply proves the point.

Some local analysts point out even a more sinister aspect of this story of peace and peace deals. Keeping in view the common perception of the people about the presence of men of Jaish-i-Mohammad and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in Swat valley, they believe that the peace deals might give an open space to militants of all hues and cries to expand their bases.

The result of this process would be an attack from the US either directly or through the Afghan government. This, if it happens, will undoubtedly lead to the disintegration of certain areas from mainstream Pakistan as well as from the mainstream Pashtun belt. This proposition may look far-fetched but keeping in view the recent attacks by the US drones in the border regions of Pakistan and the aggressive comments by Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, one is tempted to take this analysis seriously.

Some observers in Swat believe that civil society organisations, political activists, professionals and middle class businessmen have to start working with confidence. They suggest that the huge loss the people have incurred due to the high intensity conflict in the last two years, damage done to infrastructure, especially residential places, schools and hospitals, frequent power cuts and skyrocketing prices have made the lives of the common people in Swat miserable.

In the recently announced central and provincial budgets, no consideration appears to have been given to the affected areas of Fata and NWFP, especially the scenic Swat valley. A $4bn peace plan by the provincial government that we heard of last month in a section of the press seems to have either been shelved or put on the back burner.

The general impression one gets from observing the situation on the ground is that if the deal was meant to obtain a temporary respite from suicide attacks and attacks on government installations, the objective has apparently been achieved. On all other counts, the implementation of the deal seems to have run into serious trouble.